From Roger Pielke Sr’s Climate Science Website
A new paper has appeared (thanks to Timo H?meranta for alerting us to it!)
Urban, Nathan M., and Klaus Keller, 2009. . Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L04708, doi:10.GL036457, February 25, 2009. in press,
which provides further discussion of this question.
The abstract of this paper reads
“A persistent feature of empirical climate sensitivity estimates is their heavy tailed probability distribution indicating a sizeable probability of high sensitivities. Previous studies make general claims that this upper heavy tail is an unavoidable feature of (i) the Earth system, or of (ii) limitations in our observational capabilities. Here we show that reducing the uncertainty about (i) oceanic heat uptake and (ii) aerosol climate forcing can — in principle — cut off this heavy upper tail of climate sensitivity estimates. Observations of oceanic heat uptake result in a negatively correlated joint likelihood function of climate sensitivity and ocean vertical diffusivity. This correlation is opposite to the positive correlation resulting from observations of surface air temperatures. As a result, the two observational constraints can rule out complementary regions in the climate sensitivity-vertical diffusivity space, and cut off the heavy upper tail of the marginal climate sensitivity estimate”.
A key statement in the text of their paper reads
“Surface temperature observations permit high climate sensitivities if there is substantial unrealized “warming in the pipeline” from the oceans. However, complementary ocean heat observations can be used to test this and can potentially rule out large ocean warming. Ocean heat observations are compatible with high sensitivities if there is substantial surface warming which is penetrating poorly into the oceans. Again, complementary surface temperature observations can test this, and can potentially rule out large surface warming.”
By “unrealized warming in the pipeline”, they mean heat that is being stored within the ocean, which can subsequently be released into the ocean atmosphere. It is erroneous to consider this heat as ”unrealized warming”, if the Joules of heat are actually being stored in the ocean. The heat is “realized”; it would just not be entering the atmosphere yet.
As discussed in the Physics Today paper
Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: . Physics Today, 61, Vol. 11, 54-55,
there has been no heating of the upper ocean since mid-2003. Moreover, there has been no heating within the
troposphere (e.g.
of the RSS MSU data).
Thus, there is no “warming in the pipeline” using the author’s terminology, nor any heating within the atmosphere! Perhaps the heating that was observed prior to 2003 will begin again, however, it is scientifically incorrect to report that there is any heat that has not yet been realized within the climate system.
The answer to the question posted in this weblog “Is There Climate Heating In “The Pipeline”? is NO.
Rate this:Share this:Like this:Like Loading...
Related posts
Site stats
242,031,386 views
"...the world's most viewed climate website"
- Fred Pearce
"...invaluable" - Steven F. Hayward,
"...changed the world and is one of the most influential resources on global warming. -
"...flashy (apparently widely distributed)"
BUY THIS BOOK!
Shameless Plug
Donations accepted:
to help keep the
project going.
Follow WUWT via Email
Enter your email address to follow WUWT and receive notifications of new posts by email.
Join 32,080 other followers
Recent Posts
Top Posts & Pages
March 2009
Select Month
August 2015 &(88)
July 2015 &(146)
June 2015 &(144)
May 2015 &(157)
April 2015 &(125)
March 2015 &(126)
February 2015 &(115)
January 2015 &(106)
December 2014 &(130)
November 2014 &(136)
October 2014 &(163)
September 2014 &(185)
August 2014 &(190)
July 2014 &(173)
June 2014 &(195)
May 2014 &(216)
April 2014 &(182)
March 2014 &(185)
February 2014 &(164)
January 2014 &(202)
December 2013 &(144)
November 2013 &(147)
October 2013 &(147)
September 2013 &(148)
August 2013 &(165)
July 2013 &(174)
June 2013 &(164)
May 2013 &(193)
April 2013 &(171)
March 2013 &(164)
February 2013 &(165)
January 2013 &(172)
December 2012 &(126)
November 2012 &(139)
October 2012 &(176)
September 2012 &(151)
August 2012 &(144)
July 2012 &(175)
June 2012 &(179)
May 2012 &(177)
April 2012 &(178)
March 2012 &(190)
February 2012 &(161)
January 2012 &(142)
December 2011 &(161)
November 2011 &(168)
October 2011 &(180)
September 2011 &(189)
August 2011 &(190)
July 2011 &(170)
June 2011 &(187)
May 2011 &(177)
April 2011 &(177)
March 2011 &(172)
February 2011 &(183)
January 2011 &(193)
December 2010 &(183)
November 2010 &(168)
October 2010 &(191)
September 2010 &(179)
August 2010 &(200)
July 2010 &(188)
June 2010 &(140)
May 2010 &(124)
April 2010 &(122)
March 2010 &(136)
February 2010 &(142)
January 2010 &(157)
December 2009 &(168)
November 2009 &(163)
October 2009 &(132)
September 2009 &(106)
August 2009 &(92)
July 2009 &(96)
June 2009 &(94)
May 2009 &(89)
April 2009 &(99)
March 2009 &(99)
February 2009 &(60)
January 2009 &(60)
December 2008 &(58)
November 2008 &(45)
October 2008 &(63)
September 2008 &(75)
August 2008 &(77)
July 2008 &(68)
June 2008 &(72)
May 2008 &(54)
April 2008 &(54)
March 2008 &(39)
February 2008 &(40)
January 2008 &(31)
December 2007 &(27)
November 2007 &(37)
October 2007 &(29)
September 2007 &(17)
August 2007 &(31)
July 2007 &(20)
June 2007 &(25)
May 2007 &(31)
April 2007 &(31)
March 2007 &(27)
February 2007 &(24)
January 2007 &(25)
December 2006 &(22)
November 2006 &(11)
CategoriesCategories
Select Category
<option class="level-0" value="0.org connect the dots
97% consensus
99% certainty
Adjustments/Corrections
Agriculture
Air pollution
Announcements
Anthropogenic Ocean Warming
Attribution
Bad science
Bengtsson Climate McCarthyism scandal
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
Book Review
Cancun Climate Conference
Cap-and-trade
Carbon credits
Carbon dioxide
Carbon footprint
Carbon sequestration
Carbon soot
carbon tax
Celebrities on AGW
censorship
CFC&#8217;s
Chaos and Climate
Citizen science
Climate cash
Climate Communications
Climate Craziness of the Week
Climate data
Climate FAIL
Climate Models
Climate Myths
Climate News
Climate News Roundup
Climate reconciliation
Climate Reference Network
Climate sensitivity
Climate ugliness
Climategate
Climategate 3.0
Climate_change
COP conferences
Copenhagen Climate Conference
Cosmic rays
Cowtan & Way
Curious things
Current News
Desertification
disinvitation
Durban Climate Conference
dust storms
Earthquakes
Economy-health
Educational opportunity
El Nino Basics
Environment
Experiments
Extinction
extreme weather
Forecasting
Fusion power
Gavin Schmidt
Geoengineering
geothermal energy
Gergis et al
Global cooling
Global Temperature Update
Global warming
Global Warming Optimism
Gore-a-thon 2011
Gore-a-thon 2012
Gorefest11
Government funding of science
Government idiocy
Green Blob
Green Mafia
Green tech
Greenland ice sheet
Hiatus in Global Warming
Hits and Misses
hurricanes
hydroclimatology
Hydropower
IPCC AR5 leak
IPCC AR5 Report
James Hansen
Karl et al. 2015
Land use land cover change
Letters To The Editor
Lewis and Crok
Little Ice Age
Local_issues
Lower Troposphere Temperature
Marcott et al proxy paper
measurement
MedievalWarmPeriod
Michael E. Mann
modification
More On Series
National Climate Assessment Report
Natural CO2 sources
natural gas
Natural Warming
NOAA 2 year FOIA documents
Noble Cause Corruption
nuclear power
Obama Climate Plan
Obamas War on Energy
Obvious science
Ocean acidification
Ocean Heat Content
Ocean Temperatures
Open Thread
Optical phenonmena
Paleoclimatology
Papal Climate Encyclical
Peer review
Polar Vortex
Polarbeargate
Positive effects of CO2
Post-normal science
Presentations
Puzzling things
Quote of The Month
Quote of the Week
Radiative Imbalance
Reference Pages
reproducibility
Sea Ice News
Sea Surface Temperature
solar flare
solar power
Southern Annular Mode
Spaceweather
Specific Humidity
Spencer-Braswell and Dessler
statistics
Stephan Lewandowsky
Stern Review
Stratospheric water vapor
Surfacestations paper
Sustainability
Tabloid Climatology
TAO/TRITON Buoys
Technology
Temperature
The &#8220;Clitanic&#8221; aka Spirit of Mawson
The Rat-hole problem
The Skeptic&#8217;s Case
The Weather Channel
The WUWT Hot Sheet
The Yamal Deception
thorium power
Throwback Thursday Predictions
thunderstorms
Trenberth&#8217;s missing heats
UKMO HADCRUT4
Uncategorized
Uncertainty
United Nations
Waste heat
Watts et al 2012
Weather_stations
Willis Autobiography
wind power
Humor/Satire
Lukewarmers
Political Climate
Pro AGW Views
Skeptical Views
Transcendent Rant and way out there theory
Unreliable*
* Due to (1) deletion, extension and amending of user comments, and (2) undated post-publication revisions of article contents after significant user commenting.
Click for the:
Sea Ice Page
Solar Images &#038; Data Page
Atmospheric Maps Page
ENSO/SST Page
ENSO Meter
Sponsored links
IT Certifications:
Copyright Notice
Material on this website is copyright (C) , by Anthony Watts, and may not be stored or archived separately, rebroadcast, or republished without written permission.
For permission, contact us. See the About&Contact menu under the header.
All rights reserved worldwide.
Some material from contributors may contain additional copyrights of their respective company or organization.
Send to Email Address
Your Email Address
Post was not sent - check your email addresses!
Email check failed, please try again
Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.
%d bloggers like this:When I was a girl of 10,I joined the school cross-country team and practiced twice a week,on the 1,8-km course I'd never really run before and I thought the course would be easy.It was a real shock I ran out of breathe (喘气)_百度作业帮
When I was a girl of 10,I joined the school cross-country team and practiced twice a week,on the 1,8-km course I'd never really run before and I thought the course would be easy.It was a real shock I ran out of breathe (喘气)
&&&& When I was a girl of 10,I joined the school cross-country team and practiced twice a week,on the 1,8-km course I'd never really run before and I thought the course would be easy.It was a real shock I ran out of breathe (喘气) within the first few minutes.I never realized how tiring running could be but I didn't think about give up.&&& &&&& Over time,I did get a little bit faster.However,I was really slow.In races,I would finish close to last. I'd always have to stop more than once,especially in the longer races,which were 2.5 to 2.8 km.After every race,I'd go home and cry.But 1 still didn't stop running,holding onto that picture of crossing the
finishing line and finally doing well.&&&& Then one of my friends joined the team,too.She could run easily and even came in the 18th in a big race! I felt so slow and my confidence (自信) was lower than ever.I became so nervous when I thought of the races that I wanted to give up badly.&&&& Still.I refund to.Finally.&I realized that the reason I was to nervous was that I was always worried that I wasn't ready for them.So a few weeks before the next 2.8-km race.I practiced running almost 3 km every
day.which helped me improve my pace (步伐).&&&& When the time came for the big race,all that practicing really paid off.I stopped only once and my pace
was so much better.&&&& I realized that I'd finally gotten happiness with running.But the funny thing was.It didn't come from
doing better,Instead,it came from the fact that I hid tried harder and never given up.
1.Before she took the 1.8-km course,the writer ________.
A.knew a lot about it B.wanted to be a great runner
C.practiced running every day D.never thought running so tired
2.The writer was nervous about the race because she _______.
A.had to stop to drink water B.was worried she wasn't ready
C.run slower than anyone else D.could find no coach to help her
3.The underlined phrase "paid off" probably mean "______".
A.brought good results B.coat a lot C.saved much time D.came to fail
4.It can be inferred (推断) from the passage that the writer ______.
A.got angry with her friend
B.wasn't pleased with herself C.was a person with a strong mind
D.had no Interest In running
1-4&&&& &DBAC